By David Frosh, CEO of Fidelity Bancorp Funding

nvestors in commercial real estate and multifamily housing should be less concerned about the Federal Funds rate and more focused on the potential scarcity of capital in the debt markets going forward.

Given the consistent 40-year drop-in mortgage interest rates from 18 percent in 1981 to under 3% in 2021, I think we’ve all forgotten the many potential drivers of these rates. For all the deserved attention on the Federal Funds rate, it seems that many have overlooked an important principle: the Federal Funds rate does not directly impact mortgage rates. Instead, its influence is felt heavily in Treasury bonds, usually 10-year Treasuries, which have historically been a significant determinant of mortgage rates. But not the only one. Factors like GDP, unemployment, housing demand, and inflation also weigh heavily on mortgage rates and often without a direct relationship to the Fed Fund rate or Treasury Bond yields.

Others in the CRE community, however, disagree with CBRE’s prognosis. The CRE capital markets have many well known issues that will make borrowing difficult in the year ahead, these experts say.

“The lending market is far from stable,” David Frosh, CEO of Fidelity Bancorp Funding, tells GlobeSt.com even though interest rates have stabilized. “The 3% to 4% loans coming due total more than $1 trillion. New financing will most likely be in the high 5% to mid-6% range and loan-to-values (LTV) will be lower.

“These loans are upside down and it is going to create a huge problem for banks and investors.”

Please join us for a private interactive webinar for Fidelity friends and investors as we host our friend John Silvia, President of Dynamic Economic Strategy and former Chief Economist of Wells Fargo. You may recognize John from his regular appearances on CNBC, CNN, BNN, Fox Business News, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and other publications.

Not every potential investor, however, is ready to buy just yet. Some see bigger discounts in the near future as distress picks up.

David Frosh, CEO at the specialty lending firm Fidelity Bancorp Funding Inc., for instance, said that banking executives in recent months have begun to inquire with him "every other week" to gauge his interest in purchasing commercial property loans they hold.

None have grabbed his interest however, he said, because they're not being offered at sizable enough markdowns.

"At the end of the day, the defaults are coming," Frosh said. "How big and when, I don't know."

By David Frosh, CEO of Fidelity Bancorp Funding

Throughout 2023, economists and stock market analysts found themselves notably off the mark in their predictions, surpassing even their usual dismal results. Contrary to expectations, economic growth has exceeded the vast majority of projections. Amazingly a significant uptick in interest rates was met by continued growth in national housing prices. No one predicted this.

To grasp the significance of the current economic landscape, reflect on the fact that a person needs to be approximately 36 years old to have navigated through a prolonged recession as an adult. From 1981 to 2021, interest rates plummeted by a staggering 2,000 basis points and markets for both debt and equity soared all over the world (the S&P 500 increased approximately 10x during this period). Despite numerous forecasts of an impending downturn in the face of higher interest rates, the economy has remained robust. The question now looms: where are interest rates headed? The answer seems elusive, leaving even seasoned analysts without a clear trajectory. My bet is that analysts will continue to be wrong. More importantly it should not matter to investors.

Join us at the Winter Forum on Real Estate Opportunity & Private Fund Investing next week. Charlie Woo, President, is featured on a fantastic first panel, "Interest Rates, Inflation & Bank Activity: Macroeconomic Factors Impacting CRE". Get there early on day one and reach out if you are attending!

A key part of this will be construction lending, which has faced the same difficulty as other parts of the financing markets. The slow down in lending has meant there are sponsors seeking financing to complete or start work on projects who are finding themselves without viable lending options, Omori explained.

“Some of the loans we will be doing will be bridge loan situations or situations in which a client needs more funds for project overruns,” Omari said. “We could also work with borrowers who are looking to reposition a property, either something they owned or an opportunistic purchase where there is some upside potential. Also, we are interested in a limited basis in ground-up construction deals.”

The firm will focus on smaller, local builders in the multifamily sector. “The large, institutional builders, both on the residential and multifamily side, will always get their capital. We are focused on the borrowers who are building projects that are 50-75 units. These loans are getting done, just at a much slower pace,” he added.

Fidelity Bancorp Funding, Inc., a leading financial institution specializing in commercial real estate, multifamily, single-family residential bridge loans, and permanent financing, is pleased to announce that John Omori has joined the company as Senior Vice President of Construction Financing. Omori will be tasked with launching the company’s construction financing division.

“With traditional banks being capital constrained especially for construction lending, it’s important that we provide a platform to our clients to alleviate those pressures,” stated David Frosh, CEO of Fidelity Bancorp Funding. “We are confident that John will be a great asset to our clients and team as we continue to expand our business.”

John Omori joins Fidelity Bancorp Funding following tenures at Bank of Hope, First Foundation Bank and Umpqua Bank where he specialized in multifamily and commercial real estate loan originations and underwriting of complex ground up projects.

Fidelity Bancorp Funding is gearing up to expand its small-balance bridge lending platform, with the aim of raising capital from institutional and high-net-worth investors to help fill the gap as banks scale back their activity.

Charlie Woo, president of the firm’s bridge lending platform, joined Santa Ana, California-based Fidelity Bancorp this month from San Francisco-based bank Wells Fargo to spearhead an initiative that will include growing loan originations and borrower relationships as well as expanding the firm’s roster of investors. Woo will draw on his experience in the real estate finance sector, which included a long tenure as a vice-chairman in Wells Fargo’s investment bank.

“I was very active in the private credit and bridge lending sector but was more active from an M&A and capital raising standpoint. In that role, I saw an institutionalization of the capital flowing into this space,” Woo said. “The lure of doing this on the principal side was too much.”

Fidelity Bancorp Funding Inc., a leading financial institution specializing in commercial real estate, multifamily and single-family residential bridge loans and permanent financing, is pleased to announce the appointment of Charlie Woo as President of its private lending group, Fidelity Bridge Loans LLC. In this role, Woo will be responsible for expanding the companies Bridge Lending division.

Woo brings over 27 years of real estate finance experience to Fidelity Bancorp Funding Inc., most recently serving as Vice Chairman in Wells Fargo’s Corporate & Investment Banking division. His achievements at Wells Fargo includes becoming the youngest Vice Chair in the firm's history where he specialized in mergers & acquisitions, as well as debt and equity capital raises for clients across the United States. He led Wells Fargo’s U.S. regional investment banking coverage group and demonstrated remarkable results in the specialty finance and alternative lending sectors.

“Regional banks originated 62 percent of all commercial real estate loans in 2022,” said David Frosh, CEO of Fidelity Bancorp Funding. “Higher interest rates and the resulting balance sheet stress has caused these banks to tighten their purse strings which has created a significant growth opportunity for private lenders like Fidelity Bridge Loans.”

I had the good fortune of being taught by Peter Drucker while getting my MBA at Claremont University. One evening, Drucker quipped that he had been a journalist, mathematician, investment banker, economist, and a few other things before settling on writing, consulting and teaching.

He said the job he most disliked was being an economist.

The reason, he stated, was because economists were rarely right. They could tell you what happened but could almost never forecast what was going to happen. It seems I could have been a terrific economist – as I have incorrectly believed inflation and a recession were right around the corner for the past five years!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that consumer prices rose at the fastest annual rate in decades. This was mostly driven by the largest government spending since World War ll. More importantly, this is untargeted spending. Instead of using the money to build assets like roads, bridges and water storage facilities, the money was dropped on people’s heads. Money supply is up 30%. So much money fell from the sky that spending has stayed strong, while savings rates are the highest in decades.